The Message Brief: GOP Budget Bill + Cuts to Medicaid
PUBLIC Playbook. Edition 1 - June 25, 2025
The Message Brief – What to Say (and Why).
đź“Š Public Opinion Snapshot (Data for Progress):
• 50% support increasing Medicaid
• 38% support keeping it the same
• Less than 15% support cuts in any district
🎙️ Talking Points: Medicaid Cuts Hurt Families
Everyone deserves access to quality health care.
Right now, Congress is proposing Medicaid cuts to give tax breaks to billionaires.
These cuts would harm kids, families, seniors, and people with disabilities.
đź“Š Data You Can Use
Recent polling and focus group data from Data for Progress offers a critical look at how the public is responding to the GOP’s proposed federal budget bill—and more importantly, how little visibility the issue currently has. These insights matter because they show a clear opportunity: while awareness is low, concern skyrockets when voters learn what’s at stake. That means narrative-shaping work—like ours—can still make a real impact. Here’s what to know, and how to use it:
Unpopular, but overlooked. As of June 4, only 4% of voters said they’ve seen or heard about the GOP budget bill in the past week—despite its major implications for tax policy and federal funding
Clear rejection among those aware. Among voters who have heard of the bill, nearly 2‑to‑1 oppose it, with national polling showing 42% oppose, 23% support, and 34% undecided or unfamiliar
Motivators for Public Engagement
Lack of visibility means the public isn’t broadly aware of the bill—but when they are, opposition is strong.
Framing matters: Highlighting specific provisions—like Medicaid or SNAP cuts—can deepen public concern.
Local impact tests: Voters are more likely to react when they understand how cuts could affect hospitals, schools, or food assistance in their communities.
Key Takeaways & Talking Points
"Most people haven’t heard of this bill yet—so there’s still time to shape the narrative."
"In focus group testing, opposition is nearly 2‑to‑1 once people hear what’s in it."
"We need to stay visible—calls to action, local media coverage, ads, and social posts that tie national cuts to local impacts."
Stats + Impact
What some of the latest GOP proposals mean here in Oregon:
1 in 3 children rely on Medicaid. 1 in 3 Oregon children get their health care through Medicaid. These cuts mean fewer doctor visits, delayed care, and higher costs for families already stretched thin.
Rural hospitals could lose critical funding. Rural communities will be hit hardest. In many counties, up to half of residents rely on Medicaid—and rural hospitals depend on it to keep their doors open. Cuts could lead to closed clinics, longer drives for care, and fewer emergency services.
Over 100,000 residents may lose access to care. Over 100,000 Oregonians could lose access to coverage or face major barriers to getting the care they need. This isn’t abstract—it’s your neighbor who just had a baby. Your friend managing diabetes. The kid in your child’s classroom.
Cuts would devastate jobs and community stability. Oregon’s care economy—including home care workers, behavioral health providers, and long-term care staff—relies on Medicaid funding. These cuts threaten not just care, but jobs and community stability.
